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Updated: July 29, 2008, 6:22 pm	Share    Print    Email

Rough surf on Cooper’s Beach, prompted by last weekend’s storm, would surge in the event of a large scale hurricane on the East End. Photos by Kelly Carroll

Southampton - Richard Hendrickson, a life-long resident of Bridgehampton, has worked for the National Weather Service for 75 years. During his years recording the weather, he has seen rises in record heat temperatures and unprecedented weather activity. But as a boy, he witnessed and survived the great Hurricane of 1938, and, with all his knowledge and first-hand experience, he says nothing can stop something of that magnitude, or stronger, from happening again.

"There is no place for the ocean to go," Hendrickson warned, "Except over our land."

After 70 years, the East End has yet to see a storm like the one in 1938. Yet, members of the Southampton community peddling hurricane education and emergency preparedness guides fear the next big weather disruption is not a matter of "if" but "when."

Town Board Member Nancy Graboski has spearheaded the campaign to better prepare residents in the town of Southampton for the next big hurricane.

"Officially, hurricane season is underway," offered Town Board member Nancy Graboski, liaison to the department of emergency management. "I'm no hurricane expert, but as government officials in a coastal community, we are paying close attention to the professionals. As policy makers, we take these advisories seriously."

According to Dr. Stephen Leatherman, director of the International Hurricane Research Center at Florida International University in Miami, there are three cycles in nature that affect hurricane activity - El Niño, the Bermuda High Pressure Cell and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO). El Niño suppresses hurricane activity, while the Bermuda High Pressure Cell pulls storms out to the ocean. In this year, 2008, neither of these cyclical phenomena are occurring, while the AMO, a natural variability in water temperature, has kept the water temperature in the northeast fairly high, creating more of a storm-friendly environment.

"If you look at the big picture, there are a lot of cycles in climate," said Leatherman. "We should be heading to an ice age, but because of global warming, there is a human imprint."

Bridgehampton resident Richard Hendrickson has worked for the National Weather Service for 75 years, and predicts that the next hurricane will be even more devastating than the one he survived, the Hurricane of 1938.

Hendrickson, with his experience at the weather center, agrees. He said the warmer weather and higher ocean that the East End now has, compared to 1938, have the potential of causing a storm that would be even more devastating. Quite possibly, the hurricane could be slower in its forward speed and stay over the South Fork for a much longer time, doing much more destruction than 70 years ago.

Leatherman, who is also an adjunct professor at the Marine Science Research Center at Stony Brook Southampton, was in Florida during 2005's Hurricane Katrina. He spoke to the fact that the storm came over his house as a Category One hurricane, the lowest category on a scale of five. Thirty hours later, over the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Katrina grew to a Category Five storm, and became one of the strongest and deadliest hurricanes of all time.

"That's intensification. That's scary," Leatherman warned. "People think they have time. They evacuate too late."

To better prepare the residents of the Town of Southampton, Councilwoman Graboski and Director of Emergency Management Cheryl Kraft spearheaded a campaign to put together a Hurricane Survival Guide, with input from all town departments that would play a role in the event of a hurricane.

"We have no ability to control or influence the course of a hurricane," Graboski commented. "But we do have control over how we prepare and respond."

The guide is broken down into four, color-coded sections, covering all aspects of what to do before a storm, when the storm reaches land, and in the aftermath. In addition, there is general hurricane information, myth busters, frequently asked questions, a recap of the 2007 hurricane season, and a glossary of terms. A tear-out sheet of important phone numbers is also included.

Dr. Stephen Leatherman has worked for years on hurricane research in Miami, Southampton, and Washington, D.C. Last week, he predicted that the current environment is a breeding ground for hurricanes.

According to Graboski, the preparedness guide is set to be mailed to every household on Aug 1. It will also be delivered to manufactured home parks, rental complexes, SUNY Stony Brook Southampton and the Shinnecock Reservation. Extras will be available at many public buildings, including town hall, village hall, libraries, chambers of commerce and community centers. Laundromats and supermarkets will carry the guide too, and it can also be found on the town website.

"The best case scenario would be that we never have to use these plans," Graboski said. "But we can't take that chance."

Graboski also noted that the Hurricane Survival Guide is just one part of the town's full emergency preparedness effort. The councilwoman emphasized that residents and visitors need to share in the task of getting ready for a big storm. "Preparation is everyone's responsibility," she stressed.

In the event of a catastrophic storm, the question remains, just how prepared is the East End to deal with it? Coastal evacuation signs run through Southampton on Route 114, County Road 38 (Noyack Road) and County Road 39. However, at many places these roads are only one lane in the western direction, and some signs denoting the evacuation route are partially covered by vegetation. While the height of the hurricane season runs through the summer months, when the South Fork is more densely populated, a lot of people could be stuck on roadways if they tried to evacuate.

"The idea of evacuating Long Island with the highways you have is ludicrous," said Leatherman. "Evacuation means evacuation of the town. It doesn't mean getting in your car and trying to get to Manhattan."

Graboski concurred, saying "When we talk about evacuation, we don't mean Long Island. It's evacuating the flood zone." Leatherman suggests getting to higher ground, and preferably, in a basement on that higher ground. "You flee from the water, you hide from the wind," he cautioned.

While many Coastal Evacuation Routes in the East End are one-lane roadways, some signs are also hidden behind overrun vegetation.

Leatherman also advised residents to store staples for after a storm, like ice, water and propane and charcoal for grilling. In addition, he mentioned the ability to retrofit houses, preparing the house itself to fight the storm. Insurance breaks are possible if homeowners go through the steps to make their house hurricane ready.

Councilwoman Grabowski, who Town Supervisor Linda Kabot has taken to calling "Hurricane Nancy," warned residents that more people statistically die after a storm than during, and that everyone should be listening to emergency orders and refrain from venturing out too soon. Director of Emergency Management Kraft recommended that Southampton residents have an updated go-bag, that they know what their insurance covers and discuss their emergency plans with family and friends from outside the region. "The town of Southampton depends on how we all prepare," she said.

And the town of Southampton has a lot to lose. Dr. Leatherman noted that, while places like Miami, New Orleans, Houston and the Carolinas are still more susceptible to hurricanes than the East End, Long Island does fall in the Top 10 most vulnerable areas. A big part of this ranking has to do with the value that the South Fork stands to lose, waterfront property and houses being highest among them. Hendrickson also stated the obvious, saying that more homes, and more importantly, more expensive homes, now fill up more space along the water than in 1938, making the possible destruction much greater in terms of dollar amounts.

Most recently, according to Leatherman, Hurricane Dolly, touched down in southern Texas July 23, was almost $1 billion in costs. Hurricane Wilma in 2005, a Category Two storm, cost $16 billion. "Here, there is so much at risk, so much valuable property," Leatherman warned.

Right now, town board members say the best offense is a good defense, and they are urging all residents and visitors to prepare themselves. "Hurricanes are fascinating, but they are very deadly," Supervisor Kabot commented. "It's important that we don't have hurricane amnesia."

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