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« realty takes

Added: July 30, 2008, 2:30 pm

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Mean Versus Median

Property listed with The Corcoran Group.


The Montauk Pasta Dinner fundraiser passed, but not the family's need. There is a mother and wife without relatives here and her young children who lost their father, U.S. Marine and fisherman, Pete Fagan. The suggested contribution was $25. Forget the pasta! I urge you to dig in and send in - some places here that will take donations include Gurney's Inn (Ingrid Lemme), Tuma Real Estate, and Atlantic Realty or make a donation at the Bridgehampton National Bank under Gail Fagan's name.

Montauk is welcoming a brand new resident, Christian William Duryea-Kelly, born last Saturday at Southampton Hospital to Realtor Travis Kelly and wife Amy Duryea-Kelly. Congratulations to Grandpa and Grandma Chip and Wendy Duryea and Aunt Erica.

From HANFRA's Executive Officer, Dick Stauffer: "Thank you for the favorable comments regarding our efforts to inform our members and the public of the market conditions on the North and South Forks. It is critical that folks begin to think 'out of the box' and realize that providing meaningful information to the public at an affordable price will be the business model of the future."

Hey, HANFRA! Why not send something to the Fagan Family above?

From one of my editors: "I've had calls from folks concerned that Realty Takes is painting too rosy a picture of a market that is far from rosy. Questions were raised about the Median Price and what that really means. Can you give a reality check in an upcoming column to address these concerns? Let's discuss the actual volume of what is selling and renting - that we all know is very low."

(On the other hand, see below where a broker thinks the column may create a dismal view!).

Yes, well, I decline dwelling on the cup half empty. It serves no purpose and doesn't acknowledge the cup half full. People with hands-on experience know what is and isn't going on in their markets. Hard working brokers – as HANFRA suggests and we have emphasized - need to think outside of the box. We repeat, this prime and gorgeous resort area remains prime and gorgeous whatever else is going on in the world.

(By the way, the Commerce Department announced that June home sales were not as bad as they thought they would be. Yeah, right! Now isn't that helpful?).

From The Corcoran Group's John Halsted, Southampton Senior Managing Director, as to Realty Takes citing Suffolk Research data and suggesting we paint too grim a picture. (As a broker in my office once said about a deal she thought about, "I must be doing something right, because no one is happy." Still don't understand that, but in any case here's what John, wrote) - "I enjoy reading your column, however, [oops, there's the operative word] - I think it is important to point out that 'home values' have nothing to do with the 'median price' of homes sold in a particular area. There is a lot of news related to the real estate industry these days and it is important that we don't create panic or misinformation because of the lack of understanding of the terminology. Median home price refers to the mid-point in value of all the properties that have sold in a specific area or group. Value typically means either what a home is appraised for or what someone is willing to pay for it. The reports tells us that in Sag Harbor home values are up 55 percent to a median $1.1 million. Yet in Greenport, homes have lost 29 percent of their value going to a median $298,000."

We asked Suffolk Research honcho and HANFRA data provider George Simpson to respond: "Median price is universally used as a measure of real estate markets - virtually everywhere. Average price (mean price) shows a distorted view of the market due to houses with very high prices. If the median price goes down, you can expect that appraised prices and 'what someone is willing to pay' will go down. Appraisers use the same data to appraise houses that we use to measure the market, and buyers consider the same data that we use for the market to determine what they will pay. No information is the worst type of 'misinformation' - that's why we, and HANFRA now, publish good and accurate information on a regular basis."

George continued, "I don't know what John is suggesting, that we not publish medians? That there is a better measure? Certainly some segments of the market will be up while other segments are down. Also, taking a relatively small sample of houses like Sag Harbor or Greenport is subject to statistical irregularities that a larger sample like all of Southampton Town or all of Southold Town tends to dampen out. Greenport median prices may be down for the second quarter, but up one quarter later. Bottom line, if you have a house in Sag Harbor - look at the median price trend in a larger area of the East End - like Southampton Town as an indicator of the market. Likewise, look at all of Southold if you have a home in Greenport."

My own mantra? Information is valuable if and only if there's something you can do with it. Nevertheless, here's one piece of news: New York State ranks 30th in the nation in foreclosures. What that has to do with East End real estate which is very strange? I am not sure. How it helps you serve your clients? Yes, well, you answer that one.


For more information, click here.


Lona Rubenstein is an accomplished author residing in East Hampton. Her new book, "Getting Back in the Game: Finding the Fountain of Youth in Cyberspace" can be found at local booksellers and online at www.gettingbackinthegame.com. For more real estate news and views contact Lona at lonafirst@aol.com.




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